Explaining the 2022 Australian Federal Election Result

Explaining the 2022 Australian Federal Election Result
Author/editor: Biddle, N & McAllister, I
Year published: 2022


In this paper we analyse the factors associated with voting behaviour in May 2022, how that relates to voting intentions at the start of the campaign as well as voting behaviour in the 2019 election, and a summary of some other key findings from the 2022 ANUpoll/Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. Between mid-April and late-May (the start of the campaign and immediately post-election) there was a large increase in satisfaction with the direction of the country. Age and education were key factors explaining voting choice. These two factors were much stronger predictors than sex, country of birth, location, and even household income. These two characteristics – age and education – were the most important demographic characteristics factors explaining the loss in support for the Coalition. In general, Coalition voters tended to be older, non-Indigenous, with low education, living outside of the capital cities, and with a household income that puts them outside of the bottom income quintile. Labor voters tended to have high levels of education, lived in capital cities and had low income. Greens voters tended to be female, young, born in Australia or another English-speaking country, and without a trade qualification. Those who voted for another party tended to have high levels of education, lived outside of a capital city, and had a relatively low household income

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